A Steep Climb Ahead
Travellers flying within Europe may face ticket prices up to 20 per cent higher by summer 2027, according to Michael O'Leary, chief executive of Ryanair. Speaking at a briefing in Brussels, O'Leary attributed the forecast surge to a combination of escalating jet fuel costs and diminishing seat availability as airlines consolidate or exit the market.
The warning comes at a time when oil supply disruptions linked to the US-Israel conflict with Iran have pushed crude prices sharply upward. Many carriers, O'Leary said, failed to lock in fuel prices early enough, leaving them exposed to spot-market volatility that now sees bulk fuel trading at roughly double the rates secured by better-hedged operators.
Ryanair itself has hedged 80 per cent of its fuel needs through March 2027 at 67 US dollars per barrel, and a further 15 per cent of its full-year 2027 consumption at 85 dollars. But from April onward, the airline remains largely unhedged heading into the busy summer travel season, when demand peaks and pricing power typically shifts to carriers.
Why the Pressure Is Building
Fuel is not the only factor squeezing margins. A wave of mergers, takeovers and bankruptcies across European aviation is shrinking the total number of seats on offer, tightening supply just as post-pandemic travel appetite remains robust. Fewer seats and higher operating costs create textbook conditions for fare increases.
O'Leary's prediction of a 10 to 20 per cent rise would represent what he described as the largest single-year fare increase in European aviation history. While Ryanair and a handful of rivals secured hedges for 2026, the lag in forward contracting means the cost shock will hit hardest in the second quarter of 2027 and beyond.
The timing is awkward for budget-conscious travellers. School holidays, summer festivals and peak Mediterranean season all fall within the window when airlines will be paying spot prices for fuel, with little cushion to absorb the difference.
Belgium Bears the Brunt
The Brussels briefing also served as the backdrop for Ryanair's announcement that it would cut 20 routes and more than one million seats from its Belgian winter schedule, citing planned increases in the country's aviation tax. O'Leary criticised the policy as counterproductive, arguing it undermines Belgium's competitiveness relative to neighbouring countries with lower or no equivalent levies.
The carrier's frustration extends beyond national taxes. Ryanair and other European operators are increasingly vocal about the European Union's Emissions Trading System, which applies to flights within the European Economic Area, Switzerland and the United Kingdom but exempts airlines from outside the bloc. Ryanair alone expects to pay 1.5 billion euros in ETS compliance costs in 2026.
O'Leary argued that European passengers shoulder environmental levies while carriers from the United States, Asia and China operate intra-European routes without equivalent obligations. The asymmetry, he said, puts EU-based airlines at a structural disadvantage.
A Sliver of Good News
Amid the gloom, O'Leary offered one positive update. He now expects the US Federal Aviation Administration to certify the Boeing 737 MAX 10 by the end of October 2026, clearing the way for Ryanair to take delivery of 16 aircraft by early 2027.
The MAX 10, comparable in size to the Airbus A321neo, burns 14 to 20 per cent less fuel per seat than older 737 variants, making it a valuable hedge against the very fuel-price pressures O'Leary outlined. The arrival of more efficient aircraft could help blunt some of the cost increases, though not enough to offset the broader market dynamics at play.
What Travellers Can Expect
For anyone planning European trips in the second half of 2027, the message is clear: book early if possible, and budget for higher fares. The combination of unhedged fuel exposure, reduced capacity and regulatory costs is likely to push ticket prices upward across the board, not just on low-cost carriers.
Whether the increases reach the full 20 per cent O'Leary forecasts will depend on how oil markets evolve, how quickly new aircraft enter service, and whether demand softens in response to higher prices. But the structural pressures are real, and airlines have little room to absorb them without passing costs on to passengers.
The next 12 months will test the resilience of Europe's travel recovery, and the affordability of flying within the continent may look quite different by this time next year.
