Six Aircraft Out, Million Seats Gone
Ryanair will pull six aircraft from Belgium and eliminate 1.1 million seats from its winter 2026 schedule, the Irish carrier announced this week. Twenty routes will disappear from both Brussels Airport at Zaventem and Brussels South Charleroi Airport, with the Charleroi base shrinking to 13 aircraft. The airline attributed the cuts to Belgium's decision to adjust its federal aviation tax structure, which takes effect on 1 January 2027.
At Zaventem, Dublin is expected to be the sole remaining Ryanair destination. Routes on the chopping block include Barcelona, Madrid, Málaga, Marrakech, Porto, Rome Fiumicino, and Valencia. From Charleroi, the airline will drop Amman, Asturias, Dubrovnik, Genoa, Katowice, Łódź, Newcastle, Nîmes, Poznań, Reggio Calabria, Sarajevo, Trapani, and Warsaw Modlin. Around 200 jobs will be affected, according to Ryanair.
The Tax That Triggered the Cut
Belgium's current aviation levy varies by flight distance: departures over 500 kilometres are taxed at €5, while shorter flights carry a €10 charge. From January, the longer-distance rate will rise to €7. Ryanair framed the increase as a jump from €2, though that figure appears to reference an earlier baseline rather than the current structure.
Chief executive Michael O'Leary said the tax would push aircraft and growth towards cheaper markets. He pointed to Sweden, Slovakia, Hungary, and Italy as examples where aviation taxes or airport fees have been reduced or removed. The airline also dangled a conditional growth scenario: a seven-year plan that would add 100 routes and 1,000 jobs if Belgium abolishes the levy altogether. Those numbers are projections, not binding commitments.
Timing, Tactics, and the Maintenance Question
The reductions start with the winter schedule at the end of October, two months before the tax change officially kicks in. Airlines lock in aircraft allocation and schedules well ahead of operational periods, so the timing is consistent with industry practice. Still, aviation economist Wouter Dewulf noted that Ryanair routinely scales back its Charleroi fleet in winter when demand softens and aircraft go into maintenance. That suggests the tax is not the sole driver of capacity decisions, even if it provides the headline rationale.
Ryanair has warned it could remove another million seats in summer 2027 if the levy remains. The airline also flagged a broader cost pressure: fares across Europe could climb as much as 20 per cent over the next year as fuel hedging contracts expire and carriers face higher spot prices. That forecast is separate from the Belgian dispute and reflects industry-wide margin squeeze.
What It Means for Travellers and the Market
The cuts will reduce connectivity between Belgium and a mix of leisure and secondary European cities. Passengers booked on affected routes should check Ryanair's published timetable, as the final schedule may shift before winter operations begin. Neither the Belgian federal government nor airport operators had issued a public response at the time of the announcement.
The episode underscores the leverage low-cost carriers wield in negotiations with governments. Ryanair's model relies on high aircraft utilisation and cost discipline, which makes it sensitive to per-passenger fees. But the threat to relocate capacity is credible only if alternative markets offer better economics. Belgium's tax increase is modest in absolute terms, yet the airline's response is outsised, a signal that the real negotiation is over precedent and future policy direction.
For Belgium, the question is whether the tax will generate net revenue or simply shift traffic to neighbouring hubs. If Ryanair follows through on its projections, the winter cuts will remove two million seats when the summer reductions are added in. That volume could flow to airports in France, the Netherlands, or Germany, where Ryanair already operates dense networks. The outcome will depend on whether other carriers step in to fill the gaps or whether demand simply evaporates.
