A Diplomatic Chill Changes Travel Plans
Japan no longer appears among the preferred overseas breaks for Chinese tourists during this year's National Day holiday. Data from Tuniu, a major mainland travel agency, shows the country absent from the list of favourite destinations during the week-long break that began on 1 October.
The shift is striking. Twelve months earlier, Japan held the number-one position for Chinese travellers during the same holiday period. This year, Indonesia, Turkey and South Korea have taken its place among the destinations drawing the most bookings.
The change follows months of strained relations between Beijing and Tokyo. In November last year, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested Japan's self-defence forces might intervene if a Chinese move against Taiwan threatened Japanese security. The remarks, delivered during a parliamentary session, broke with Tokyo's decades-long practice of avoiding explicit commitments on the Taiwan question.
Beijing's response was swift and sharp. China's foreign ministry described the comments as "blatantly provocative" and warned that they had "further damaged the atmosphere for people-to-people exchanges, creating additional risks to the safety and security of Chinese citizens" in Japan. The ministry urged mainland residents to "refrain from visiting Japan for the time being".
Where the Travellers Went Instead
According to Qunar, a mainland online booking platform, reservations for flights exceeding 2,000 kilometres climbed more than 40 per cent year-on-year on the holiday's opening day. Tongcheng Travel reported that Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur and Seoul led the list of overseas destinations this Golden Week. No Japanese city reached the top ten.
Thailand appears to be among the clearest beneficiaries. The Tourism Authority of Thailand projected around 250,000 Chinese arrivals during the holiday period, a 24 per cent increase over the previous year. Governor Thapanee Kiatphaibool noted increasingly clear signs of recovery in the Chinese market ahead of the break. Tourism revenue from mainland visitors was expected to reach approximately 11.5 billion baht (roughly $350 million) during the period, up 37 per cent year-on-year, according to data cited by The Bangkok Post.
Indonesia recorded 1.34 million Chinese arrivals last year, the highest figure in six years, according to Xinhua, China's state news agency. In Turkey, tour operators in Fethiye, a Mediterranean resort town, report that Chinese visitors now account for roughly one in three paragliding flights from Babadag during Golden Week.
Short-haul favourites this year included Bangkok, Seoul, Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur and Singapore. Bookings for Europe, South America, Australia and New Zealand all saw increases exceeding 40 per cent compared with the same period a year earlier, Qunar reported.
What Japan Has Lost
Chinese visitors had been central to Japan's tourism rebound after the pandemic. Nearly 7.5 million mainland travellers visited Japan in the first nine months of 2025, making China one of the country's largest source markets.
Arrivals dropped sharply after the diplomatic friction intensified. December 2025 saw a decline of roughly 45 per cent, and numbers have remained substantially lower throughout this year. The absence of Japan from Tuniu's preference list during Golden Week underscores how quickly traveller sentiment can shift when political friction enters the picture.
Golden Week, which commemorates the founding of the People's Republic of China, is one of the mainland's busiest travel periods. Chinese authorities projected about 2.13 billion passenger trips during this year's holiday. The combination of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival breaks this year encouraged longer trips, giving travellers more flexibility to explore destinations farther afield.
The Broader Picture
The Taiwan issue remains a persistent flashpoint. Beijing considers the island part of China and has not ruled out the use of force to achieve reunification. Taiwan disputes this claim. Japan's shift towards a more explicit stance on the matter represents a significant departure from its previous ambiguity, and the consequences for tourism illustrate how quickly economic ties can fray when diplomatic language hardens.
For Japan, the loss of Chinese visitors during one of the year's peak travel windows is a measurable setback. For Southeast Asian destinations and Turkey, the influx represents an opportunity to capture demand that might otherwise have flowed elsewhere. Whether the shift proves temporary or signals a longer realignment will depend in part on how relations between Tokyo and Beijing evolve in the months ahead.
